How Does the Dallas – Fort Worth Real Estate Market Compare to 2006-2007?

The following statistics are through March 2014 that we previously shared with our newsletter audience. Prices have continued to spike higher from these March statistics as labor and materials costs continue to rise.

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Unlike a lot of the United States, residential Dallas – Fort Worth real estate prices have rebounded to an all-times high – recovering from the peak of 2006. In fact, I just read that prices were 5% higher than the previous high before the bottom fell out. So out of curiosity, we’ve decided to see for ourselves. Below, we look at a few different geographic locations in DFW to compare sales data recorded in 2006 through 2007 to MLS sales data in 2013-March 2014.  

We’ll start in east Dallas (mapsco grid 36) since that happens to be my stomping grounds. Keep in mind these are numbers recorded in the NTREIS Multiple Listing Service in addition to a few non-MLS sales in which I participated. As we all know, some sales are never recorded on the MLS – or recorded inaccurately, as some tear-downs are classified in the “residential” bucket and not recorded as “lot and acreage” sales.

With that in mind, we found that east Dallas MF2-zoned land sales averaged $24.06 a square foot in 2013, compared to $22.05’ in 2006 through 2007.  Single-family lot prices averaged $25.08’ in 2006-2007, while MLS recorded lot sales in 2012-2013 averaged $24.29’. Seventy-two new construction, 2-bedrooom, 2-bathroom condos and townhomes (with sales price data) sold in 2006-2008 averaging $159.96’ compared to 13 units in 2013 for $176.73’. 

Thirty-two 3-bedroom new construction condos and townhomes sold in 2006-2007 for an average of $161’ compared to 13 units in 2013 with an average price of $140.79 a foot. New construction prices on single-family detached homes enjoyed the most dramatic price increase. In the years 2006-2008, 191 new homes sold for an average of $170.68 a foot, while the MLS recorded twenty-seven new home sales in 2013 at an average of $199.73 a foot.

Moving west to the Park Cities, there were eleven lot sales in 2006 through 2008 at an average of $88.29 a square foot. Seven Highland Park lot sales were notated in 2013 at $130.77’ with an average lot price of $1,594,500. Keep in mind, that after discarding the high and low, current active lot listings average $145.05 a foot in Highland Park. University Park lot sales in 2013 averaged $96.21’ or $1,222,111, with most sales from $800,000 to $1,550,000. One outlier was a Turtle Creek lot selling for $2,250,000.

While high-end home prices can vary greatly depending on finishes, amenities and level of luxury, we’ll look at results on strictly a macro level. Highland Park homes 3,000’ to 4,000’ averaged $242.30 in 2006-2007 while 2013 averaged $270.33’. Homes 4,000’ to 5,000’ were $297.82’ in ‘06-07 edging out 2013 numbers at $296.40’. 5,000’ to 6,000’ homes averaged $315.40’ in 2006-2007 while 2013 prices rose to $335.06’. Homes 6,000’ and up averaged $441.66’ at an average price of $3.4 million in 2006-07 while 2013 home sales (MLS recorded) averaged $363.22’ at $2.42 million.

In Oak Lawn area, newly built 3-bedroom condos and townhomes averaged $177.41’ at $429,000 sale price in 2006-07 versus $182.85’ and a sales price of $474,900 in 2013. In 2006-07, new 2-bedroom condos and townhomes averaged $180.96’ or $311,965 with no MLS-recorded sold new builds in 2013.

This is one area that hasn’t quite recovered as pre-recession prices on new 2-bedroom units averaged $175.54’ while new 3-bedroom units sold in 2013 averaged $140’. There were no new build sales recorded but units built in 2005 and later that sold in 2013 averaged $159.04’ for 2-bedroom units, and $128.84’ for 3-bedroom units.

Southlake lot prices may seem very reasonable on a price per square foot basis, yet keep in mind that the lots in our sample averaged 2.12 acres. There were thirty-two recorded sales in 2006-2007 averaging $4.71’ while 2013 land prices increased on thirty-four sales to $6.36 a square foot. Most lots were around the 1-acre size, but a 7-acre, and two nearly 4-acre lots skewed the lot size average a bit higher. Southlake new homes from 4,000 to 5,000 square feet averaged sales prices of $637,990 in ‘06-07 while 2013 prices averaged $832,166. New homes 5,000 to 6,000’ increased marginally from a previous $923,848 to $928,994 in 2013. Homes sized 6,000 to 7,000’ jumped from $1,313,113 to $1,520,000. Homes larger than 7,000’ averaged sold prices of $217.90’ in 2006/2007 versus $233.11’ in 2013.

The Dallas – Fort Worth apartment market is booming. Average purchase price per unit is approaching $60,000 versus a bit under $40,000 per door just four years ago. Dallas recorded a 5.3% vacancy rate in the 3rd quarter of 2013, while Fort Worth vacancy rates were at 6.4%. With a projected 114,000 jobs forecast to be added this year following 112,700 last year in the metroplex, apartment developers have 19,000 units under development.2013 enjoyed a 40% increase in transaction velocity with class C leading with a 50% increase in velocity. In 2006, rents for a 1-bedroom averaged $636 monthly versus today’s $795 – at 25% increase. 2-bedrooms have risen 24% since 2006 with the average now at $1,009 versus $815 previously.

New construction activity has been most active in the Uptown/Oak Lawn area where effective rents have reached $1,542.  

Demand for both residential and commercial new construction is soaring. As bank lending has resurged and more companies relocate to Texas, our DFW real estate market is firing on all cylinders. 

If you would like to know what your property might be worth, or need help finding properties, contact our t2 Real Estate office at 214-827-1200